{"id":2066,"date":"2016-12-06T14:36:08","date_gmt":"2016-12-06T13:36:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/?page_id=2066"},"modified":"2018-03-12T17:27:57","modified_gmt":"2018-03-12T16:27:57","slug":"l19-introduire-le-risque","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/","title":{"rendered":"Le\u00e7on 21 : L&rsquo;agriculture, une activit\u00e9 risqu\u00e9e"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Cette le\u00e7on est divis\u00e9e en deux parties : les \u00e9l\u00e9ments de connaissances n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 la mod\u00e9lisation du risque et comment \u00e9crire en GAMS. Visionnez la premi\u00e8re vid\u00e9o et avant de regarder la deuxi\u00e8me vid\u00e9o, essayez SEUL d&rsquo;\u00e9crire le mod\u00e8le demand\u00e9.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col span=\"1\" width=\"80\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\" colspan=\"2\"><strong>1) Vid\u00e9o 1 : \u00c9l\u00e9ments th\u00e9oriques<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6><strong><em>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L21_Introduire_le_risque_partie1\/html5.html\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><em><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(15 min)<\/span><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\" colspan=\"2\"><strong>2) Exemple : Variabilit\u00e9 des revenus<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<ul>\n<li>ouvrir GAMS<\/li>\n<li>ouvrir le mod\u00e8le <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/modeles\/risque_base.zip\">risque_base.gms<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Ajoutez les \u00e9quations de calcul du revenu al\u00e9atoire et v\u00e9rifiez les valeurs du revenu al\u00e9atoire dans le fichier de sortie<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"1\"><span style=\"color: #800080\"><strong>Etat de la nature<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"1\"><span style=\"color: #800080\"><strong>Probabilit\u00e9<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"3\"><span style=\"color: #800080\"><strong>Marge brute du bl\u00e9<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"3\"><span style=\"color: #800080\"><strong>Marge brute du ma\u00efs<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E1<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>460<\/td>\n<td>2000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E2<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>440<\/td>\n<td>500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E3<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>450<\/td>\n<td>300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E4<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>430<\/td>\n<td>1400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E5<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>470<\/td>\n<td>800<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"color: #800080\"><b>MOYENNE<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>450<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>1000<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>On a donc le mod\u00e8le qui s\u2019\u00e9crit :<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-family: Courier New\"><br \/>\nMax Z = 450&#215;1+1000&#215;2<br \/>\navec\u00a0 x1+x2 \u2264 50<br \/>\n25&#215;1+50&#215;2 \u2264 2000<br \/>\n460&#215;1+2000&#215;2 = RAL1<br \/>\n440&#215;1+500&#215;2 = RAL2<br \/>\n450&#215;1+300&#215;2 = RAL3<br \/>\n430&#215;1+1400&#215;2 = RAL4<br \/>\n470&#215;1+800&#215;2 = RAL5 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 x1,x2 \u2265 0<br \/>\n<\/span><br \/>\nAjoutez 5 contraintes de calcul comme par exemple :<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-family: Courier New\"><br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>equations<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nrevenuAlea1;<br \/>\nrevenuAlea1.. RAL1=e=<span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>sum<\/strong><\/span>(C, MB(&lsquo;E1&rsquo;,C)*X(C)] ;<br \/>\n<\/span><br \/>\nOu ajoutez<span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"> une contrainte d\u00e9pendante du set E<\/span> (comme dans la le\u00e7on 12 sur les p\u00e9riodes) :<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-family: Courier New\"><br \/>\n<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">equations<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\nrevenuAlea(E);<br \/>\nrevenuAlea(E).. RAL(E)=e=<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">sum<\/span><\/strong>(C, MB(E,C)*X(C)];<br \/>\n<\/span><br \/>\nA vous maintenant de l&rsquo;\u00e9crire dans GAMS !<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\" colspan=\"2\"><strong>3) Correction-le\u00e7on<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\">\n<h6><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L21_agricultureUneActiviteRisquee_Video2\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><em><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(6 min)<\/span><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L19_Introduire_le_risque.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a>Mod\u00e8le Calcul des revenus al\u00e9atoires<br \/>\n<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-869\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-869 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/retourSommaireCours.png\" alt=\"retourSommaireCours\" width=\"211\" height=\"68\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cette le\u00e7on est divis\u00e9e en deux parties : les \u00e9l\u00e9ments de connaissances n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 la mod\u00e9lisation du risque et comment \u00e9crire en GAMS. Visionnez la premi\u00e8re vid\u00e9o et avant de regarder la deuxi\u00e8me vid\u00e9o, essayez SEUL d&rsquo;\u00e9crire le mod\u00e8le demand\u00e9. <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Le\u00e7on 21 : L&rsquo;agriculture, une activit\u00e9 risqu\u00e9e<\/span><span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":0,"parent":705,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-2066","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2066"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3821,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2066\/revisions\/3821"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}