{"id":2150,"date":"2017-01-05T14:33:48","date_gmt":"2017-01-05T13:33:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/?page_id=2150"},"modified":"2018-03-12T17:29:17","modified_gmt":"2018-03-12T16:29:17","slug":"lecon-20-safety-first","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-20-safety-first\/","title":{"rendered":"Le\u00e7on 22 : Safety First"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Apr\u00e8s avoir visionn\u00e9 les instructions, lisez attentivement les explications ci-dessous et mod\u00e9lisez l&rsquo;exemple avant de visionner la correction-le\u00e7on.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"80\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>1) Vid\u00e9o 1<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<h6>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L22_safetyFirst_partie2_3\/html5.html\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><em><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(2 min)<\/span><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\" colspan=\"2\"><strong>2) Exemple (suite de l&rsquo;exemple de la le\u00e7on 20)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<ul>\n<li>ouvrir GAMS<\/li>\n<li>ouvrir le mod\u00e8le <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/modeles\/risque_base.zip\">risque_base.gms<\/a><\/li>\n<li>\u00e9crivez SEUL le mod\u00e8le : Ajoutez le risque avec la m\u00e9thode Safety First (ajoutez la contrainte de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de revenu)<br \/>\nPrenez votre temps !<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\">Une premi\u00e8re m\u00e9thode qui consid\u00e8re que le comportement face au risque consiste \u00e0 vouloir \u00e9viter que le revenu descende en dessous d\u2019un seuil minimum, une sorte de revenu de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, est la m\u00e9thode <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">Safety-First<\/span>. Dans l&rsquo;in\u00e9quation Pr{Z\u0303\u2264Z0} \u2264 \u03b1\u00a0 , on a \u03b1 = 0, c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire que dans tous les cas on veut que le revenu soit sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 notre seuil minimum.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"1\"><span style=\"color: #800080\"><strong>Etat de la nature<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"1\"><span style=\"color: #800080\"><strong>Probabilit\u00e9<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"3\"><span style=\"color: #800080\"><strong>Marge brute du bl\u00e9<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"3\"><span style=\"color: #800080\"><strong>Marge brute du ma\u00efs<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E1<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>460<\/td>\n<td>2000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E2<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>440<\/td>\n<td>500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E3<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>450<\/td>\n<td>300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E4<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>430<\/td>\n<td>1400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E5<\/td>\n<td>0.2<\/td>\n<td>470<\/td>\n<td>800<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"color: #800080\"><b>MOYENNE<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>450<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>1000<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>On fait l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se l\u2019agriculteur souhaite d\u00e9gager au minimum 18000 euros par an pour faire face \u00e0 ses d\u00e9penses, quelle que soit l\u2019ann\u00e9e. On a donc le mod\u00e8le qui s&rsquo;\u00e9crit :<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-family: Courier New\"><br \/>\nMax Z = 450&#215;1+1000&#215;2<br \/>\navec\u00a0 x1+x2 \u2264 50<br \/>\n25&#215;1+50&#215;2 \u2264 2000<br \/>\n460&#215;1+2000&#215;2 <strong>\u2265<\/strong> 18000<br \/>\n440&#215;1+500&#215;2<strong> \u2265<\/strong> 18000<br \/>\n450&#215;1+300&#215;2 <strong>\u2265<\/strong> 18000<br \/>\n430&#215;1+1400&#215;2 <strong>\u2265<\/strong> 18000<br \/>\n470&#215;1+800&#215;2 <strong>\u2265<\/strong> 18000\u00a0 x1,x2 \u2265 0<br \/>\n<\/span><br \/>\nA vous maintenant de l&rsquo;\u00e9crire dans GAMS !<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\" colspan=\"2\"><strong>3) Correction-le\u00e7on<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\">\n<h6><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L22_safetyFirst_video2\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><em><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(4 min)<\/span><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L19_Introduire_le_risque.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/modeles\/bleMais_safetyFirst.zip\">Mod\u00e8le Safety First<\/a><br \/>\n<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-869\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-869 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/retourSommaireCours.png\" alt=\"retourSommaireCours\" width=\"211\" height=\"68\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s avoir visionn\u00e9 les instructions, lisez attentivement les explications ci-dessous et mod\u00e9lisez l&rsquo;exemple avant de visionner la correction-le\u00e7on. 1) Vid\u00e9o 1 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (2 min) 2) Exemple (suite de l&rsquo;exemple de la le\u00e7on 20) ouvrir GAMS ouvrir le mod\u00e8le risque_base.gms \u00e9crivez <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-20-safety-first\/\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Le\u00e7on 22 : Safety First<\/span><span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":0,"parent":705,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-2150","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2150","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2150"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2150\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3822,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2150\/revisions\/3822"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2150"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}