{"id":705,"date":"2016-08-02T13:22:28","date_gmt":"2016-08-02T11:22:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/?page_id=705"},"modified":"2019-01-20T14:39:09","modified_gmt":"2019-01-20T13:39:09","slug":"cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/","title":{"rendered":"Cours 3.1 : Le risque dans les mod\u00e8les"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bienvenue dans ce premier cours de la troisi\u00e8me s\u00e9quence de programmation math\u00e9matique.<br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #993366\"><strong>Pour chaque le\u00e7on<\/strong><\/span>, nous vous proposons de <strong><span style=\"color: #993366\">visionner une vid\u00e9o<\/span><\/strong> contenant des \u00e9l\u00e9ments th\u00e9oriques et<strong><span style=\"color: #993366\"> t\u00e9l\u00e9charger les diapositives<\/span><\/strong> de la le\u00e7on gr\u00e2ce aux liens juste \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9. Dans ce cours sur le risque, presque toutes les le\u00e7ons sont assorties d&rsquo;<span style=\"color: #993366\"><strong>activit\u00e9-exemple<\/strong> <\/span>dans la le\u00e7on que nous vous incitons \u00e0 r\u00e9aliser s\u00e9rieusement. A chaque fois vous trouverez une <span style=\"color: #993366\"><strong>correction d\u00e9taill\u00e9e de l&rsquo;exemple<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Vous avez ensuite pour chaque le\u00e7ons une ou plusieurs activit\u00e9s. Les <strong><span style=\"color: #993366\">activit\u00e9s de construction de mod\u00e8le<\/span><\/strong> peuvent reprendre des mod\u00e8les d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9crits dans un cours pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Si vous n\u2019avez pas fait l\u2019activit\u00e9 correspondante, vous pouvez <span style=\"color: #993366\"><strong>trouver le mod\u00e8le<\/strong><\/span> n\u00e9cessaire dans la<span style=\"color: #993366\"> <strong>\u00ab\u00a0Biblioth\u00e8que des mod\u00e8les\u00a0\u00bb<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<table width=\"480\">\n<colgroup>\n<col style=\"width: 160pt\" span=\"2\" width=\"80\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Le\u00e7on 21 : L&rsquo;agriculture, une activit\u00e9 risqu\u00e9e <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td rowspan=\"2\">\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-949\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(12 min)<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L21_Introduire_le_risque.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/11\/supportDeCours3.png\" alt=\"supportDeCours3\" width=\"72\" height=\"53\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\" width=\"380\"><em>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/qcm-20\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/boutonQCM1.png\" alt=\"boutonqcm1\" width=\"56\" height=\"40\" \/>Quiz 21 ! <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/activiteRouage_ssTx.png\" alt=\"activiteBRouage\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/activite-20-etudier-la-variabilite-des-revenus\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/semences2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"28\" height=\"19\" \/> : \u00c9tudier la variabilit\u00e9 des<br \/>\nrevenus <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Le\u00e7on 22 : Safety-First <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-2-introduire-le-risque-par-des-contraintes-de-securite-de-revenu\/lecon-20-safety-first\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-949\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(6 min)<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L22_safetyFirst.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/11\/supportDeCours3.png\" alt=\"supportDeCours3\" width=\"70\" height=\"51\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/activiteRouage_ssTx.png\" alt=\"activiteBRouage\" width=\"58\" height=\"62\" \/> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-20-safety-first\/activite-21-safety-first-exploitation-du-lauragais\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-2506\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/semences2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"28\" height=\"19\" \/>: Safety First <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Le\u00e7on 23 : Esp\u00e9rance &#8211; Ecart type <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<em>Type de mod\u00e8le (NLP, MIP, MINLP) et \u00e9criture du carr\u00e9 et de la racine carr\u00e9e (SQR et SQRT)<\/em><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-size: 80%\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-2-introduire-le-risque-par-des-contraintes-de-securite-de-revenu\/l-esperance-ecart-type\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-949\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a>(10 min)<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L23_esperanceVariance.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/11\/supportDeCours3.png\" alt=\"supportDeCours3\" width=\"70\" height=\"51\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/activiteRouage_ssTx.png\" alt=\"activiteBRouage\" width=\"58\" height=\"62\" \/> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l-esperance-ecart-type\/activite-22-modele-esperance-ecart-type\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-2506\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/semences2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"28\" height=\"19\" \/>: Esp\u00e9rance\/\u00e9cart type <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Le\u00e7on 24 : Chance Constrained Model et Target-MOTAD <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-size: 80%\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-23-chance-constrained-model-et-target-motad\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a>(9 min)<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L20_esperanceVariance.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L24_CCMTargetMOTAD.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/11\/supportDeCours3.png\" alt=\"supportDeCours3\" width=\"70\" height=\"51\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/activiteRouage_ssTx.png\" alt=\"activiteBRouage\" width=\"58\" height=\"62\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-23-chance-constrained-model-et-target-motad\/activite-23-target-motad\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/semences2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"28\" height=\"19\" \/> : Target-MOTAD <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Le\u00e7on 25 : Rappel sur la th\u00e9orie de l&rsquo;utilit\u00e9 esp\u00e9r\u00e9e <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\"><span style=\"font-size: 80%\"><em>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L25_rappel_utiliteEsperee\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a>( 9 min)<\/span> \u00a0\u00a0<span style=\"font-size: 80%\"> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L25_RappelUtiliteEsperee.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/11\/supportDeCours3.png\" alt=\"supportDeCours3\" width=\"70\" height=\"51\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Le\u00e7on 26 : Maximiser une fonction d&rsquo;utilit\u00e9 <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-size: 80%\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-25-maximiser-une-fonction-d-utilite\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a>(7 min)<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L20_esperanceVariance.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L26_fonctiondUtilite.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/11\/supportDeCours3.png\" alt=\"supportDeCours3\" width=\"70\" height=\"51\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-625 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/retourSommaireSequence.png\" alt=\"retourSommaireSequence\" width=\"184\" height=\"57\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bienvenue dans ce premier cours de la troisi\u00e8me s\u00e9quence de programmation math\u00e9matique. Pour chaque le\u00e7on, nous vous proposons de visionner une vid\u00e9o contenant des \u00e9l\u00e9ments th\u00e9oriques et t\u00e9l\u00e9charger les diapositives de la le\u00e7on gr\u00e2ce aux liens juste \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9. Dans <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Cours 3.1 : Le risque dans les mod\u00e8les<\/span><span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":0,"parent":669,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-705","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/705","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=705"}],"version-history":[{"count":85,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/705\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4120,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/705\/revisions\/4120"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}