{"id":2150,"date":"2017-01-05T14:33:48","date_gmt":"2017-01-05T13:33:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/?page_id=2150"},"modified":"2019-06-27T14:11:51","modified_gmt":"2019-06-27T12:11:51","slug":"lecon-20-safety-first","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-20-safety-first\/","title":{"rendered":"Lesson 22 : Safety First"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Once you have watched the instructions, read the following explanations carefully and model the example before you watch the correction-lesson.<\/em><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"80\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>1) Vid\u00e9o 1<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<h6>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/video\/L21_video1.mp4\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><em><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(2 min)<\/span><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\" colspan=\"2\"><strong>2) Example (following the example in lesson 20)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<ul>\n<li>open GAMS<\/li>\n<li>run the model <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/modeles\/modelEco_primal0_risk_base.zip\">primal0_risk_base.gms<\/a><\/li>\n<li>write the model ON YOUR OWN : Add the risk factor using the Safety First method (add the income safety constraint)<br \/>\nTake your time !<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In the face of risk, the <u>Safety-First<\/u> method consists in wanting to avoid seeing the income fall below a minimum threshold, a sort of safety income. In the Pr{Z\u0303\u2264Z0} \u2264 \u03b1\u00a0 inequation, \u03b1 = 0, which means that the income must always be higher than our minimum threshold.<\/p>\n<table width=\"378\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"114\">State of nature<\/td>\n<td width=\"118\">Probability<\/td>\n<td width=\"72\">Gross margin of wheat<\/td>\n<td width=\"75\">Gross margin of maize<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"114\">E1<\/td>\n<td width=\"118\">0.2<\/td>\n<td width=\"72\">460<\/td>\n<td width=\"75\">2000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"114\">E2<\/td>\n<td width=\"118\">0.2<\/td>\n<td width=\"72\">440<\/td>\n<td width=\"75\">500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"114\">E3<\/td>\n<td width=\"118\">0.2<\/td>\n<td width=\"72\">450<\/td>\n<td width=\"75\">300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"114\">E4<\/td>\n<td width=\"118\">0.2<\/td>\n<td width=\"72\">430<\/td>\n<td width=\"75\">1400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"114\">E5<\/td>\n<td width=\"118\">0.2<\/td>\n<td width=\"72\">470<\/td>\n<td width=\"75\">800<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"114\"><strong>AVERAGE<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"118\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"72\"><strong>450<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"75\"><strong>1000<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Assuming that the farmer wishes to earn at least 18000 euros a year in order to meet his expenses, regardless of the year, the model is therefore written as follows :<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-family: Courier New\"><br \/>\nMax Z = 450\u00d71+1000\u00d72<br \/>\navec\u00a0 x1+x2 \u2264 50<br \/>\n25\u00d71+50\u00d72 \u2264 2000<br \/>\n460\u00d71+2000\u00d72\u00a0\u2265\u00a018000<br \/>\n440\u00d71+500\u00d72\u00a0\u2265\u00a018000<br \/>\n450\u00d71+300\u00d72\u00a0\u2265\u00a018000<br \/>\n430\u00d71+1400\u00d72\u00a0\u2265\u00a018000<br \/>\n470\u00d71+800\u00d72\u00a0\u2265\u00a018000\u00a0 x1,x2 \u2265 0<br \/>\n<\/span><br \/>\nIt is your turn to write it in GAMS !<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\" colspan=\"2\"><strong>3) Correction-lesson<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\">\n<h6><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/video\/L21_video2.mp4\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><em><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(4 min)<\/span><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L19_Introduire_le_risque.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/modeles\/modelEco_primal0_risk_safetyFirst.zip\">Mod\u00e8le Safety First<\/a><br \/>\n<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4121 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/files\/2018\/11\/backUnit.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"211\" height=\"66\" \/><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Once you have watched the instructions, read the following explanations carefully and model the example before you watch the correction-lesson. 1) Vid\u00e9o 1 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (2 min) 2) Example (following the example in lesson 20) open GAMS run the model primal0_risk_base.gms <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-20-safety-first\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Lesson 22 : Safety First<\/span><span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":0,"parent":705,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-2150","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2150","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2150"}],"version-history":[{"count":26,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2150\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4617,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2150\/revisions\/4617"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2150"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}