{"id":705,"date":"2016-08-02T13:22:28","date_gmt":"2016-08-02T11:22:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/?page_id=705"},"modified":"2019-07-02T16:41:53","modified_gmt":"2019-07-02T14:41:53","slug":"cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/","title":{"rendered":"Unit 3.1 : Modelling risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome to the first unit of the third sequence on mathematical programming.<br \/>\n<strong>For each lesson<\/strong>, we suggest that you <strong>watch a video<\/strong> of the theoretical contents and <strong>download the slides<\/strong> of the lesson using the matching links. In this lesson on the notion of risk, nearly every lesson comes with an activity-example which we encourage you to do in depth. Each of these will be followed by a <strong>detailed correction of the example<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Each lesson then contains one or several activities. The <strong>model construction activities<\/strong> may use models already described in a previous unit. If you have not done the activity in question, you may <strong>find the relevant model<\/strong> in the \u201c<strong>Model library<\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n<table width=\"480\">\n<colgroup>\n<col style=\"width: 160pt\" span=\"2\" width=\"80\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Lesson 21 : Agriculture, a risky activity <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td rowspan=\"2\">\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-949\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(12 min)<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/S3\/L21_riskyActivity_pdf.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/S3\/L21_riskyActivity_pdf.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/files\/2019\/07\/supportDeCours_en.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"64\" height=\"54\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\" width=\"380\"><em>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/qcm-20\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/boutonQCM1.png\" alt=\"boutonqcm1\" width=\"56\" height=\"40\" \/>Quiz 21 ! <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/activiteRouage_ssTx.png\" alt=\"activiteBRouage\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/activite-20-etudier-la-variabilite-des-revenus\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/semences2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"28\" height=\"19\" \/><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/activite-20-etudier-la-variabilite-des-revenus\/\">\u00a0: Studying income variabilit<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l19-introduire-le-risque\/activite-20-etudier-la-variabilite-des-revenus\/\">y <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Lesson 22 : Safety-First\u00a0 <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-2-introduire-le-risque-par-des-contraintes-de-securite-de-revenu\/lecon-20-safety-first\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-949\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a><span style=\"font-size: 80%\">(6 min)<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/S3\/L22_safetyFirst_video1_pdf.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/S3\/L22_safetyFirst_video1_pdf.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/files\/2019\/07\/supportDeCours_en.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"64\" height=\"54\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/activiteRouage_ssTx.png\" alt=\"activiteBRouage\" width=\"58\" height=\"62\" \/> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-20-safety-first\/activite-21-safety-first-exploitation-du-lauragais\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-2506\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/semences2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"28\" height=\"19\" \/><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-20-safety-first\/activite-21-safety-first-exploitation-du-lauragais\/\">: Safety First\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-20-safety-first\/activite-21-safety-first-exploitation-du-lauragais\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-2506\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Lesson 23 : Expectation \u2013 Standard deviation <\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/strong><\/h6>\n<h6><strong>Model type <em>(NLP, MIP, MINLP) and writing the square and square root (SQR et SQRT)<\/em><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-size: 80%\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-2-introduire-le-risque-par-des-contraintes-de-securite-de-revenu\/l-esperance-ecart-type\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-949\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a>(10 min)<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/S3\/L23_standardDeviation_pdf.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/S3\/L23_standardDeviation_pdf.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/files\/2019\/07\/supportDeCours_en.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"64\" height=\"54\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/activiteRouage_ssTx.png\" alt=\"activiteBRouage\" width=\"58\" height=\"62\" \/> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/l-esperance-ecart-type\/activite-22-modele-esperance-ecart-type\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-2506\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/semences2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"28\" height=\"19\" \/>: Expectation\/standard deviation <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Lesson 24 : Chance Constrained Model and Target-MOTAD\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-size: 80%\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-23-chance-constrained-model-et-target-motad\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a>(9 min)<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L20_esperanceVariance.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/S3\/L24_CCMTargetMOTAD_pdf.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/files\/2019\/07\/supportDeCours_en.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"64\" height=\"54\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/activiteRouage_ssTx.png\" alt=\"activiteBRouage\" width=\"58\" height=\"62\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-23-chance-constrained-model-et-target-motad\/activite-23-target-motad\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/semences2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"28\" height=\"19\" \/> : Target-MOTAD <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Lesson 25 : Reminder of the expected utility function <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\"><span style=\"font-size: 80%\"><em>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/video\/L25_video1.mp4\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a>( 9 min)<\/span> \u00a0\u00a0<span style=\"font-size: 80%\"> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/S3\/L25_expectedUtility_pdf.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/files\/2019\/07\/supportDeCours_en.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"64\" height=\"54\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"120\">\n<h6><strong>Lesson 26 : Maximizing a utility function <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-size: 80%\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-25-maximiser-une-fonction-d-utilite\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/05\/video.png\" alt=\"video\" width=\"59\" height=\"67\" \/><\/a>(7 min)<a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/S3\/C1\/L20_esperanceVariance.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/ModelEco\/en\/S3\/L26_utilityFunction_pdf.pdf\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-940\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/files\/2019\/07\/supportDeCours_en.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"64\" height=\"54\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/12\/activiteRouage_ssTx.png\" alt=\"activiteBRouage\" width=\"58\" height=\"62\" \/> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/lecon-25-maximiser-une-fonction-d-utilite\/activite-25-fonction-dutilite\/\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2016\/08\/semences2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"28\" height=\"19\" \/> : Using a CARA utility function <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modeleco\/files\/2017\/11\/N2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"25\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4112 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/files\/2018\/11\/backSequence.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"59\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome to the first unit of the third sequence on mathematical programming. For each lesson, we suggest that you watch a video of the theoretical contents and download the slides of the lesson using the matching links. In this lesson <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/auto-formation\/sequence3\/cours-1-lagriculture-une-activite-risquee\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  Unit 3.1 : Modelling risk<\/span><span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":0,"parent":669,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-705","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/705","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=705"}],"version-history":[{"count":99,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/705\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4735,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/705\/revisions\/4735"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.supagro.fr\/wordpress\/modelecoen\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}